The clock is literally counting down on the official Academy Awards video feed of their nominations. At lunchtime in the UK, over breakfast in New York and at a point in the morning in LA usually reserved for the first, resigned cup of coffee for the depressed insomniac, this year’s contenders will be read out. They’ll be done in a couple of batches by a slightly random clutch of lovelies: Chris Pine, Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs, and directors Alfonso Cuarón and JJ Abrams.

Here’s our tips for the key nominees – when you factor in all the technical categories, we think Birdman will walk into the awards as pack leader, with Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game hot on its heels. Remember: first-round Oscar voting ended on 8 January, which means the events of the last week – last Friday’s Bafta nominations and Sunday’s Golden Globes – won’t have a direct impact. But if one can glean the general mood for them, it’s that this is increasingly a two-movie race between Boyhood and Birdman, with Selma something of an outsider (though likely to fare better here than elsewhere) and Grand Budapest Hotel more of a dark horse.

Check back from 1.15pm GMT and 8.15am EST for all the news, reaction and more. Plus, from next week, awards expert Guy Lodge will be assessing the runners and riders in each category.

Best picture

How many titles the Academy puts through varies; buzz this year is that the potential 10 won’t make it, and nine or even eight is more likely. The film with its fate hanging in the balance is Whiplash, but the Academy was generous enough to Beasts of the Southern Wild (another Sundance hit from a man under 30) to set a decent precedent.

Locks: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything

Likely: Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Whiplash

Outside bets: Nightcrawler, American Sniper

Very outside bets: Unbroken, A Most Violent Year

Best director

The DGA nomination for Clint Eastwood means that despite lukewarm notices for American Sniper, the 84-year-old is likely to squeak through. But we’re pretty confident Morten Tyldum’s DGA place will go to Selma’s Ava DuVernay – would the Oscars really turn down the chance to nominate a black woman for the first time ever in the category? Foxcatcher had been felt to have lost momentum, but there might have been a last minute surge of support from those upset by Mark Schultz’s slamming of Bennett Miller on Twitter (and those who remember Miller’s Cannes win).

Locks: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Likely: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), Ava DuVernay (Selma)

Outside bet: Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), David Fincher (Gone Girl)

Best supporting actress

The two female acting races this year are basically done and dusted. Nobody thinks Patricia Arquette won’t win this, so her fellow nominees are academic. The only real question is whether Jessica Chastain or Rene Russo will get that fifth place. We’re opting for the latter.

Locks: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Likely: Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep, (Into the Woods), Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)

Outside bet: Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Best supporting actor

JK Simmons has this sewn up, but there is the slight chance that voters will fall into the Spall/Bafta trap and simply assume enough other people will tick his box. The big question will be whether Steve Carell is nominated for lead (as per Globes) or supporting (Baftas) for Foxcatcher. If it’s the former, then Tom Wilkinson or Robert Duvall will be excluded. If it’s the latter, it’s an early bath for the older blokes. We’re going to assume Team Foxcatcher will push him for lead.

Locks: JK Simmons (Whiplash), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

Likely: Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

Outside bet: Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Tom Wilkinson (Selma), Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Best actress

Julianne Moore will win this, so the question mark is about whether, as seems very likely, Jennifer Aniston scores a nod for Cake, and, if she does, whether that shoves out Amy Adams (who won the comedy actress category at the Globes) for Big Eyes or Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl.

Locks: Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Likely: Jennifer Aniston (Cake), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

Outside bets: Amy Adams (Big Eyes), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Best actor

The reason they might put Carell through for supporting, of course, is that he has a faintly better chance there than he does in lead, where battle lines are already drawn between the two Golden Globe winners, Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne. But a best actor nomination is also simply more valuable than one in the supporting category.

Locks: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Likely: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), David Oyelowo (Selma)

Outside bets: Jake Gyllenhall (Nightcrawler), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Timothy Spall (Mr Turner)

Best original screenplay

A great pack – with Foxcatcher likely to be a victim of Academy confusion (many will assume it was at least partly based on Mark Schultz’s book).

Locks: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Likely: Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Paul Webb (Selma)

Outside bets: Chris Rock (Top Five), Dan Futterman and E Max Frye (Foxcatcher)

Best adapted screenplay

Another strong field. It’s a shame that Whiplash is here rather than in the original screenplay category (it was based on Damien Chazelle’s own short).

Locks: Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything), Graham Moore (The Imitation Game), Gillian Flynn (Gone Girl)

Likely: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Nick Hornby (Wild)

Outside bets: Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice), James Gunn and Nicole Perlman (Guardians of the Galaxy)

Best foreign language film

If the Academy folks can be sure to see Ida, it might snatch it from Leviathan. That would seem to be the story here, but this is a notoriously unpredictable category.

Locks: Ida, Leviathan, Force Majeure

Likely: Tangerines, Timbuktu

Outside bets: Wild Tales, Corn Island

Best documentary

This is already a race that looks to mimic last year’s smackdown between The Act of Killing and 20 Feet from Stardom. In the serious corner this year: Edward Snowden documentary Citizenfour. And in the showbiz: Life Itself, the excellent Steve James study of Roger Ebert.

Locks: Citizenfour, Finding Vivian Maier, Life Itself

Likely: The Internet’s Own Boy, The Case Against 8

Outside bets: Tales of the Grim Sleeper, The Salt of the Earth

Best cinematography

A win is already in the bag for last year’s winner, Emmanuel Lubezki (then for Gravity, this time round for Birdman). This category is surely also Mr Turner’s best shot of a nod – and Unbroken’s.

Locks: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman), Dick Pope (Mr Turner), Roger Deakins (Unbroken), Robert D Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Likely: Hoyte Van Hoytema (Interstellar)

Outside bets: Ryszard Lenczewski and Łukasz Żal (Ida), Oscar Faura (The Imitation Game)

Best editing

Part of the point of Boyhood is its editing feat, so it’s impossible this won’t get a mention, and likely a gong. Whiplash and Birdman’s cutting are also, to some extent, their sell.

Locks: Sandra Adair (Boyhood), Douglas Crise (Birdman), Tom Cross (Whiplash)

Likely: William Goldenberg (The Imitation Game), John Gilroy (Nightcrawler)